Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 19.890099 21.566622 23.372836 25.472727 27.858703 30.499460 33.662750
2025-09-28 17.758510 20.169577 22.953567 26.446014 30.768473 36.023255 43.024379
2025-10-05 15.743520 18.482897 21.809664 26.230843 32.086719 39.785644 51.057622
2025-10-12 14.357078 17.303018 21.028818 26.223262 33.517132 43.806337 60.281908
2025-10-19 13.396649 16.507919 20.582192 26.507339 35.281232 48.511068 71.673378
2025-10-26 12.475496 15.646212 19.916001 26.344528 36.300724 52.214830 82.460710
2025-11-02 11.681021 14.868765 19.264599 26.084541 37.075719 55.607249 93.711293
2025-11-09 11.065642 14.278239 18.806571 26.033071 38.133327 59.641577 107.623722
2025-11-16 10.493781 13.699244 18.304001 25.836742 38.889368 63.248498 122.039648
2025-11-23 9.984878 13.171015 17.826462 25.615492 39.547142 66.778962 137.850538
2025-11-30 9.531931 12.692260 17.381966 25.392779 40.153564 70.319752 155.489378
2025-12-07 9.156442 12.303264 17.043487 25.307102 40.992199 74.541240 177.584299
2025-12-14 8.753788 11.857109 16.594704 25.006667 41.413042 78.037335 200.241381
2025-12-21 8.632438 11.833151 16.818049 25.918615 44.428614 88.659774 258.504853
2025-12-28 8.298297 11.458415 16.440943 25.696084 45.028786 93.332875 298.006334
2026-01-04 8.030216 11.172453 16.190625 25.683455 46.085469 99.616916 353.989019
2026-01-11 7.833152 10.987916 16.096779 25.956963 47.834573 108.564971 441.135343
2026-01-18 7.577457 10.695187 15.797723 25.798236 48.544477 114.599768 523.402294
2026-01-25 7.324719 10.395038 15.467241 25.545730 48.989706 119.978464 616.020811
2026-02-01 7.120851 10.165502 15.246649 25.495679 49.936910 127.545738 756.789315
2026-02-08 6.908892 9.912929 14.970306 25.305161 50.495826 133.982053 916.823554
2026-02-15 6.706543 9.667782 14.693764 25.090472 50.962078 140.337128 1117.073719
2026-02-22 6.516035 9.434791 14.426916 24.874349 51.396426 146.845812 1376.983706